Media reports are trumpeting that Palin has effectively already thrown her hat into the ring for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination. Let’s take a moment to reflect on what this means for the GOP, and U.S. politics. Frankly, this could be the death of the Republican Party as we know it. A significant number of Republican pundits and flagbearers have already expressed their grave concern with the selection of Palin as a contender for the vice presidency — including former Secretary of State Colin Powell. Essentially we are watching what may become a civil war in the GOP between an increasingly despondent core of conservative thinkers (e.g., Christopher Buckley) and the waxing power of the evangelical right wing exemplified by Palin.
The Republican Party was, at one time, the voice of fiscal responsibility and conservatism on the political stage. They railed against national debt and wanted a minimum of federal government intervention in the daily lives of U.S. citizens. The Bush administration has thrown that template for the GOP out the window. With overwhelming legislative authority and a GOP president in the White House, the Republican-led federal government simultaneously ran up the greatest debt in American history, expanded the size of government, curtailed the protections of U.S. citizens and contributed to one of the greatest financial disasters in recent history. In a sense, the Bush White House has overseen the inversion of the Republican Party’s proclaimed core principles.
In short, while all Republicans still argue that they are the party of fiscal conservatism and small government, the past eight years show that this is clearly not the case. A messy divorce of the true conservatives from the free-spending neo-cons may have been in the offing regardless of this election. But Palin’s selection as the vice-presidential nominee, and her meteoric rise to prominence within the party, appear to be bringing matters to a head.
For example, her announced opinions on matters of science and education would place the U.S. at a distinct disadvantage in relation to other countries on issues ranging from genetic research to biotechnology — areas of critical importance to our economic well-being.
Meanwhile, despite these statements, public missteps related to her wardrobe and per diem pay, and significant ethical questions related to her behavior as governor, her popularity is soaring amongst many GOP faithful.
Many Republicans will soon have to decide whether their loyalty lies to their party, or to their principles of small government, conservative fiscal policy and economic competitiveness. If Palin’s brand of populism strikes a chord with Republicans who are more concerned with social issues (such as gay marriage or stem-cell research), that may give her the voting power she needs to overwhelm party faithful who are primarily focused on minimizing the role of government. These views are fundamentally in conflict. The GOP is undergoing an identity crisis, and something will have to give. It will be interesting to see what role Palin will play in that process.
-Ship
PS: Ed Stoddard of Reuters must have been thinking the same thing I was. His analysis of this issue is fairly interesting.