Transition Fever (and political fallout)
This week has seen a flurry of speculation and confirmation on a ton of key Cabinet posts for the incoming Obama administration. Each of these picks could be a political minefield, so let’s take them one by one (and, no, I won’t even get to Clinton here).
Let’s start with the rumors that Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano will be tasked with leading the Department of Homeland Security, which are everywhere. One byproduct of that pick would be that the governorship of Arizona would go to a Republican, Secretary of State Jan Brewer (Arizona has no lieutenant governor). This could give Brewer a good head start on a run for the Governor’s office in 2010. That’s especially significant because whoever has the governor’s office following the 2010 election will oversee the redrawing of political districts after the 2010 census results are issued. Five of Arizona’s eight House seats are currently Democratic. That number could shift dramatically if the GOP is in charge of redistricting in 2010. BUT WAIT, there’s more. Napolitano had been expected to challenge McCain for his Senate seat in 2010. Polls are split on who would win that race, but it would have been competitive. If Napolitano takes the DHS job, she’s out of the running to oppose McCain — likely giving him a relatively unobstructed path to re-election. Now, on to the next Cabinet pick …
Former Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle’s (SD) appears to have been picked to head up HHS (which must have driven Dem party chair Howard Dean nuts, since he was lobbying for the post). In addition to ticking off the current (though outgoing) Dem party head, does Daschle’s selection create political problems related to the incoming administration’s promises to avoid conflicts of interest (Daschle has had dealings with the health care industry since leaving the Senate)? And, I almost forgot, what about Chicago billionaire Penny Pritzker’s apparent selection to head up Commerce. Phew! A lot to keep up with.
What do you think of Napolitano’s pick (and the potential political fallout)? Daschle? Pritzker? Let me know!
-Ship
UPDATE: Wow, that was fast. Pritzker has dropped out of the running for the Commerce job. Apparently she didn’t want to get raked over the coals regarding previous business dealings. Who’s the next contender?
2 Responses to “Transition Fever (and political fallout)”
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Re AZ governorship: Actually, the AZ governor has no control over redistricting whatsoever. Redistricting there is handled by a commission with 2Rs and 2Ds who then vote on a 5th member, and the plan has to pass unanimously. Therefore, I don’t think we have much to fear with redisctricting. Secondly, Jan Brewer is neither a strong candidate nor all that popular. The likely D candidate, AG Terry Goddard, is extremely popular and could beat Brewer in 2010 (especially if Brewer’s in office while AZ’s weak housing market continues to slump).
Re Daschle: I think he’s a good choice. As for his potential conflict of interest, I highly doubt that would be a problem. Thing is, you can’t find qualified cabinets who haven’t at some point done some lobbying. Plus, such a stringent standard, as Margaret Carlson said on Countdown, is like retroactively punishing people. When he first took the job, Daschle had no idea he’d be called on to be in the cabinet. Plus, he was never a registered lobbyist. As for Dean, I have trouble seeing him at HHS because I don’t think he’d work very well with the Congress. I also think Dean is mature enough to not take personal offense at not being hired (he never struck me as petty).
Thanks for your insight elessar. Question about the AZ redistricting: who appoints the redistricting commission panelists? The governor, the legislature, or party officials? I’ve heard good things about Goddard, but unseating an incumbent is easier said than done — and Brewer will have two years to work on his profile.
I agree on Daschle and Dean, though Daschle may well still catch heat since his wife is a well-known lobbyist who worked for years in a firm that handles healthcare issues. However, I understand she is leaving that firm to start her own outfit that doesn’t work on healthcare issues. Regardless, the Senate will push Daschle through in no time. He’s a former member of the club, after all.