Now that Ted Stevens has officially lost the Alaska Senate race to Mark Begich, the eyes of political junkies everywhere turn to Minnesota and Georgia. If Dems win the Senate seats up for grabs in those two states, they will have a 60-member caucus that can override stalling tactics in that chamber. Minnesota is engaged in a closely watched recount between former-comedian Al Franken and incumbent GOP Senator Norm Coleman. But Georgia, quite frankly, is where all the action is.
Obama is releasing a new ad in the Georgia runoff between GOP incumbent Saxby Chambliss (he of the Max Cleland smear campaign), and Dem contender Jim Martin. Martin and Chambliss are engaged in a runoff because, although Chambliss won the popular vote, neither received a majority of the vote (Chambliss scored just under 50 percent of the vote). Voter turnout will be crucial in the runoff.
But wait, there’s more. Bill Clinton was in Georgia earlier this week to whip up support for Martin. And Al Gore will be there on Sunday.
The Obama ad, the high profile endorsements and the cohort of Obama campaign vets descending on the Peach State, could have a huge impact in this runoff election. Why? Because voter turnout is KEY in a runoff. FiveThirtyEight does a good job of explaining the dynamics. Basically, there are two questions: Will Dems, inspired by the Obama win, turn out in waves for the runoff? And, will Republicans, depressed by their setbacks on Election Day, fail to make it to the polls? If so, Martin looks like a good bet to take the seat — despite the fact that Chambliss defeated Martin by more than 3 percentage points on Election Day. So, if you have friends and/or family in Georgia, tell them to show up and vote Dec. 2.
-Ship
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